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They are far cheaper； they don't talk back； you can send them to much more dangerous locales； arid； with some chance of mission failure always before us； no lives are put at risk。
〃HAVE YOU SEEN ME？〃 the back of the milk carton read。 〃Mars Observer； 6' x 4。5' x 3'； 2500 kg。 Last heard from on 8/21/93； 627；000 km from Mars。〃
〃M。 O。 call home〃 was the plaintive message on a banner hung outside the jet Propulsion Laboratory's Mission Operations Facility in late August 1993。 The failure of the United States' Mars Observer spacecraft just before it was to insert itself into orbit around Mars was a great disappointment。 It was the first post…launch mission failure of an American lunar or planetary spacecraft in 26 years。 Many scientists and engineers had devoted a decade of their professional lives to M。 O。 It was the first U。S。 mission to Mars in 17 years—since Viking's two orbiters and two landers in 1976。 It was also the first real post…Cold War spacecraft： Russian scientists were on several of the investigator teams； and Mars Observer was to act as an essential radio relay link for larders from what was then scheduled to be the Russian Mars '94 mission； as well as for a daring rover and balloon mission slated for Mars '96。
The scientific instruments aboard Mars Observer would have napped the geochemistry of the planet and prepared the way for future missions； guiding landing site decisions。 It might have cast a new light on the massive climate change that seems to have occurred in early Martian history。 It would have photographed some of the surface of Mars with detail better than two meters across。 Of course； we do not know what wonders Mars Observer would have uncovered。 But every time we examine a world with new instruments and in vastly improved detail； a dazzling array of discoveries emerges just as it did when Galileo turned the first telescope toward the heavens and opened the era of modern astronomy。
According to the mission of Inquiry； the cause of the failure was probably a rupture of the fuel tank during pressurization； gases and liquids sputtering out； and the wounded spacecraft spinning wildly out of control。 Perhaps it was avoidable。 Perhaps it was an unlucky accident。 But to keep this matter in perspective； let's consider the full range of missions to the Moon and the planets attempted by the United States and the former Soviet Union：
In the beginning； our track records were poor。 Space vehicles blew up at launch； missed their targets； or failed to function when they got there。 As time went on； we humans got ；）otter at interplanetary flight。 There was a learning curve。 The ；adjacent figures show these curves （based on NASA data with NASA definitions of mission success）。 We learned very well。 Our present ability to fix spacecraft in flight is best illustrated by the Voyager missions described earlier。
We see that it wasn't until about its thirty…fifth launch to the Moon or the planets that the cumulative U。S。 mission success rate got as high as 50 percent。 The Russians took about 50 launches to get there。 Averaging the shaky start and the better recent performance； we find that both the United States and Russia have a cumulative launch success rate of about 80 percent。 But the cumulative mission success rate is still under 70 percent for the U。S。 and under 60 percent for the U。S。S。R。/Russia。 Equivalently； lunar and planetary missions have failed on average 30 or 40 percent of the time。
Missions to other worlds were from the beginning at the cutting edge of technology。 They continue to be so today。 They 。ire designed with redundant subsystems； and operated by dedicated and experienced engineers； but they are not perfect。 The amazing thing is not that we have done so poorly； but that we leave done so well。
We don't know whether the Mars Observer failure was due to inpetence or just statistics。 But we must expect a steady background of mission failures when we explore other worlds。 No human lives are risked when a robot spacecraft is lost。 Even if we were able to improve this success rate significantly； it would be far too costly。 It is much better to take more risks and fly more spacecraft：。
Knowing about irreducible risks； why do we these days fly only one spacecraft per mission？ In 1962 Mariner 1； intended for Venus； fell into the Atlantic； the nearly identical Mariner 2 became the human species' first successful planetary mission。 Mariner 3 failed； arid its twin Mariner 4 became； in 1964； the first spacecraft to take close…up pictures of Mars。 Or consider the 1971 Mariner 8/Mariner 9 dual launch mission to Mars。 Mariner 8 Was to map the planet。 Mariner 9 was to study the enigmatic seasonal and secular changes of surface markings。 The spacecraft were otherwise identical。 Mariner 8 fell into the ocean。 Mariner 9 flew on to Mars arid became the first spacecraft in human history to orbit another planet。 It discovered the volcanos； the laminated terrain in the polar caps； the ancient river valleys； and the aeolian nature of the surface changes。 It disproved the 〃canals。〃 It mapped the planet pole to pole and revealed all the major geological features of Mars known to us today。 It provided the first close…up observations of members of a whole class of small worlds （by targeting the Martian moons； Phobos and Deimos）。 If we had launched only Mariner 8； the endeavor would have been an unmitigated failure。 With a dual launch it became a brilliant and historic success。
There were also two Vikings； two Voyagers； two Vegas； many pairs of Veneras。 Why was only one Mars Observer flown？ The standard answer is cost。 Part of the reason it was so costly； though； is that it was planned to be launched by shuttle； which is an almost absurdly expensive booster for planetary missions—in this case too expensive for two M。 O。 launches。 After many shuttle…connected delays and cost increases； NASA changed its mind and decided to launch Mars Observer on a Titan booster。 This required an additional two…year delay and an adapter to mate the spacecraft to the new launch vehicle。 If NASA had not been so intent on providing business for the increasingly uneconomic shuttle； we could have launched a couple of year