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股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第章

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 a weekly or monthly close outside the previousngestion zone to conclude that there is。indeed a new trend。 

4。 
After plotting the candles; move on to the clouds。 Clouds。are defined by an upper edge and a lower one; both called Span; which; as。in English; means。length of time。 Leading Span 1 also known as。Senkou Span A; is。the sum of today's。values。of the moving averages。divided by two; plotted twenty…six days。ahead of the last plete candle。 Leading Span 2; or Senkou Span B; is。the highest price of the last fifty…two days; minus。the lowest price of that period; divided by two and again plotted twenty…six days。ahead of the last plete days。trading。 The space between these two is。shaded; or cross…hatched as。in the figures。in this。chapter; but may be rendered in any color or bination of colors。your heart desires。 Even though the upper edge and the lower edge have similar names; they are constructed very differently。 Like the Conversion Line and the Base Line。 Leading Span 1 and Leading Span 2 work。together。 Span 1 is。faster; providing the arias; whereas。the slower Span 2 provides。die underlying beat。 When these two march in the same direction; the market is。clearly trending: bullish when Span 1 is。above Span 2 or bearish when Span 2 is。above Span 1。 

5。 
The final line to plot is。the Lagging Span; called Chikou Span in Japanese。 In the figures。in this。chapter; the lagging Span is。the thickest; darkest line。 It is。last nights。closing price; not the current price; plotted twenty…six days。ago。 


Lagging Span is a line chart that has been displaced back in time; hence the name。 Some puters。have trouble with this。one and plot the current price twenty…five days ago。 If this。is。the case; the line will bob up and down during the day as。the current price changes。 This。is irritating; but not an enormous problem。 However; the reason for using the closing price is。sound。 As I pointed out earlier; today’s。price action can take all sorts。of shapes during the day。 The goal is。to work。with what it eventually ended up looking like。 Learn to be patient。 

These lines。identify support; resistance; and the trend。 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is。a system designed for trending markets。and is。not useful for anything that is。crawling across。the page。 Because it relies。on daily candlestick charts; day traders。and very。active market…makers。won't find it too valuable。 On the other end of the spectrum; it is。a little too short term for pension funds。looking to invest for very long time horizons。 I have found that this。last problem can be overe by using weekly candles; and that these often work。exceeding well。 Monthly charts。are not much good because Leading Span B uses。data of up to fifty…two prior time periods。 Fifty…two months。is。more than four years; meaning that the slower span hardly changes。(and therefore the cloud does。not move much) and may be a million miles。from current prices。 My Japanese colleagues。bend the rules。of this。system by working with hourly and five…minute charts。 They have been trying it with weekly。ones。for a long time。 Feel free to fiddle and experiment。 
To recap quickly; the six most useful elements are: 
。 
the candles themselves; individually and in groups and patterns。

。 
two moving averages; nine…day (Conversion Line) and twenty…six…day (Base Line) simple ones。

。 
two Leading Spans; which make up the cloud itself 
。 one Lagging Span 





Working With the Elements 
The candles; as。mentioned; are used in exactly the same way as。bar charts。 First look。for clusters。of support and resistance; patterns; congestion /ones; and trendlines。 Then look for reversal candles; which usually appear either singly (easy to spot because they are often the biggest) or in clusters。of twos。and threes。 Gaps。in the price action; especially if associated with a reversal candle; are also important; rather like Western 〃island reversals。〃 
Use the moving averages。in the usual way。 Take a long position when the nine…day one is。higher than the longer average; switch to a short position when the nine…day drops below the twenty…six…day average。 The Base Line is。a sort of drumbeat; keeping the pace; while the Conversion Line forces。you to act; shifting between long and short positions。 This is。not necessarily noise; but worth keeping in mind when deciding whether the Conversion Line's。moves。are significant。 This。method of trading keeps。you in the market 100 percent of the time; not necessarily a good idea (vast losses。pile up in sideways。markets) and perhaps not even an achievable one — for example; if you cannot borrow shares。that you have sold short。 The averages。themselves。are used as。support and resistance levels。for today's。price action。 In a bull trend the averages。move northeast more slowly than the candles。 If there was。a small downward correction; the nine…day average would be the first support level; the twenty…six…day。average the next。 The value of the instrument might drop below the nine…day one and hold somewhere between there and the lower average。 At that point; scrutinize the candles。themselves。for signs。of a reversal。 At this stage the averages。should not cross。 If they do; at least cut the position。 And never forget: moving averages。work。well only in trending markets。 
The edges。of the cloud also act as。support and resistance; both for trending and sideways。markets。 In an ideal bull market; leading Span 1 will be below the nine…day and twenty…six…day averages。and above the Leading Span 2。 These support you all the way。up and everything is。plain sailing。 The opposite happens。in a perfect bear market: all the lines。feel top…heavy and grind the market down。 This。is。a series。of four lines。which should limit any collective move。 Picture them as。two pairs。 In the first pair; the longer moving average is。more important than the short one。 In the second pair; Span 2 is。of critical importance; whereas。Span 1 may or may not stem the move。 I think。of this。as。an advance force versus。rearguard action。 If prices。move through leading Span 2; then any position should be cut and probably reversed。 If this。one goes; watch out! As。always; at support and resistance levels。watch for reversal…type candles。which will hint that the lev
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